In sports betting/gambling there is a common phrase that “the house always wins.”
This is usually true, but occasionally bookies make mistakes.
These are called VALUE BETS
Here’s what that means and how you can use VALUE BETS to your advantage:
How You Can Use “Value Bets” in sports betting
At a high level, a VALUE BET is any bet that has a higher percentage of return than the associated risk as reflected in the odds i.e. the risk/return ratio is in your favor.
But how do you figure out what that risk/return ratio is?
You have to understand that a betting line is just an implied probability of a team winning.
To understand how a betting line can be turned into a win probability, check out this chart:
lines are set according to the bookies’ probabilities, plus market forces, and vig (or juice) which is in essence the bookies’ cut of any bet.
So, the first step in finding a VALUE BET is to identify the win probability implied by the line.
Next, you need to compare this implied probability with your own probability on which team will win.
But, how do you get accurate win probabilities?
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Option 1: build your own predictive model.
This can be a lot of fun, but can also be VERY time consuming.
Sports books like DraftKings have so much time and money to throw into developing predictive models, that it can be difficult to build a more accurate model than them.
Option 2: find win probabilities online.
There are many websites dedicated to predicting sports outcomes, some for free, some at a price (check out FanGraphs for accurate, free probabilities).
Ultimately, we will use these win probabilities to find the Expected Value.
What is Expected Value (EV)?
EV is the amount you can expect to win or lose, on average, if you were to place the exact same bet multiple times.
EV lets us quickly find VALUE BETS through an easy formula; removing the need to use an implied probability chart.
The EV calculation is shown in the first image below, and it only takes two inputs: the betting line and your win probability.
A VALUE BET is any bet in which the EV is greater than 0.
The second image is an example, with a betting line of +130 and a win prob. of 57.10%.
Positive EV bets tend to be found among underdogs.
This means the implied probability of an underdog is more favorable than their true win probability.
Bookies do this since some bettors will think an underdog has a better chance to win than they really do (this is vig).
11/ In our experience, betting on positive EV underdogs is usually not a profitable strategy.
For instance, in the 2022 MLB season, positive EV underdogs have only won around 36% of the time and have an ROI of -7.41%.
However, not all positive EV bets are on massive underdogs.
Occasionally, you can find positive EV bets in the “goldilocks zone.”
We consider the “goldilocks zone” to be positive EV bets with plus odds and a >50% chance to win.
“Goldilocks zone” example
On July 31, 2022, DraftKings had the Boston Red Sox at +120 versus the Milwaukee Brewers.
+120 implies a win probability of 45%, but we thought their real win probability was 51.24%.
The Red Sox won the game, and we more than doubled our money.
This strategy of finding “goldilocks zone” bets is a key ingredient in how our own models find their daily picks.
In our experience, “goldilocks zone” bets in the 2022 MLB season have hit at 49.47%, with an ROI of 13.63%.
*Disclaimer* this is not gambling/financial advice, please only bet if you are over 21 and live in a state where online sports betting is legal.
If you would like more of this kind of content, leave a reply and check out our other sport betting tips.
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What is Bitcoin Sports Betting?
The question many sports betters ask themselves;
Is Bitcoin sports betting profitable? Can you make consistent money with sports betting? What are the strategies for sports betting?
Sports betting is a billion dollar industry worldwide. In the United States, it’s become so popular that almost everyone has an opinion about sports and sports betting. This industry is booming because people like you and me want to bet on everything we watch or play games with our children. Sports betting has become so common that many organizations have started regulating it so people don’t lose all their money on risky sports bets. Many countries are now implementing this regulation as well, including England, France and Australia.
There are several ways to place bets and cash in on your winnings. You can bet using cash, credit card or even your smartphone via apps.
Sports betting provides gamblers with excitement because they never know if they’ll win or lose their bet. This emotion plays into why some people place risky bets with no thought to how they’ll pay their bills at the end of the month
Sports betting is an extremely profitable aspect of society; however, there are laws in place to regulate this activity for legal reasons such as gambling addiction and bankruptcy . Sports betting can be very exciting; however, it requires skill, thoughtfulness and lots of patience— just like life itself! The answer is yes; you can make good money consistently with sportsbetting using the proper strategies.
Strategies for Bitcoin sports betting
Betting a fixed amount
Fixed quantity having a bet refers to bets positioned in opposition to odds supplied by means of a bookmaker. When a wager has been positioned there will be no fluctuation on the payout. Meaning that if you positioned a wager at 7/1 you will nevertheless preserve these odds regardless if they alternate at a later date.
If you have been to area a wager at high-value odds and they are considerably decrease earlier than the tournament starts offevolved this would suggest that you are having a bet with odds that symbolize terrific price and in the lengthy run you must return a profit.
Placing proportional bets
Proportional making a bet is a strategy that practices the significance of bankroll management. Meaning that with this kind of device you need tosolelywager with a proportion of your bankroll on selective odds.
For example, with odds that are very low, you can permit yourself to wager with 2% of your bankroll. While if you have beenmaking a bet on a lengthy shot you would possiblysolely be allowed to wager with 0.5% of your bankroll. There are many structures out there the place the quantity you are counseled to stake will range dramatically based totally on how the device functions.
Hedging
Hedging a guess is a strategy that involves putting a bet against your unique bet. This strategy is an advanced one and if no longer implemented correctly can end result in big losses.
The aim of hedging is to reduce losses or guarantee a profit relying on how the original bet is looking. This guess needs to be executed in play, consequently it is important to have a plan in region so you know exactly what to do in a few specific scenarios.
This strategy is best utilized when betting on outsiders. If the outsider is doing very well an probability might arise the place you can bet on the original preferred to win and lock in a guaranteed profit.
Negative progression
The terrible progression system is based totally on increasing your bet measurement after every losing bet. Additionally, when you have a prevailing bet you will need to reduce the size of your bet.
Positive progression
Positive development systems encourage punters to bet extra when they are winning and less when they are losing. The theory right here is to minimize your losses and to capitalize on your winnings. This is considered to be less unstable as you will be betting from the profit gained when you are going for walks good and you will be more conservative when running bad.
Betting structures and strategies are the holy grail of gambling. If one truly existed that could flip a small investment into a fortune it would no doubt be banned by every bookmaker by means of now. With this being said we believe there are many betting techniques out there that can bring success if implemented correctly.